Fat Cats Wall Street
Joel Benenson, Democratic Strategist: Well, I think there are two things. I have a mantra when it comes to elections. I generally say that they're about big things, not small things. They're about the future, not the past, and it's about their lives, not your life. That doesn't mean candidates' bios don't matter. I think there's a lot more going on in people's lives today than the economic concerns, which are very salient in the data. There's no question about that. But on an array of other issues and I think we saw this in Kansas recently there are things that are very motivating to voters in the center, for example. Independent voters in the survey we did together, Neil and I and we do work together quite frequently very strong on wanting to protect choice and a woman's right to choose. On tax fairness issues, they are closer to where Democrats are than where Republicans are. They don't think corporations need tax breaks. They think working people and average people do. So I think that we can say the economy is going to be front and center, but then which party is going to be corporate fat cat
Fat Cats Political Cartoon
favorable earnings it is now time for us to take decisive and even valorous action look up that word in the dictionary, ‘valorous.'”
Huh? If you’re confused either by the slang, the securities terms, or Aron’s performative performance that’s OK. Here’s a breakdown of what the hell Aron announced Thursday.
On August 19, AMC will issue one preferred equity stock unit for each of its 560.82 million shares. So if you have two AMC shares, you’ll be issued two of these new units; they’ll begin trading three days later and will carry the same voting rights as the existing common shares. The move gives AMC an alternative to the less-palatable option of issuing more actual shares; the company will be able to sell some of the new units to raise funds.
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“This is a major step forward for AMC. In my view, probably the biggest favorable development for our company in all of the calendar year ’22, both looking back and looking ahead,” Aron said. “We believe this is truly great news for AMC and not-such-good news for those prophets of doom who may be rooting against fat cats political cartoon
Corporate Fat Cat
family and every other person's family who works on those coal plants.
I've explained to, say, Joe Craft a legendary Trump-aligned, heavy-duty coal guy that you and your employees are not married to coal. You're actually married to employment, family, community, making a difference and creating energy. You’re married to energy, not coal.
And [then] the lights come on.
Does this act make your investment case for green hydrogen? And is it enough to ensure America’s green energy transition?
The Inflation Reduction Act hits about the right note. It could go higher, it could be broader, but it is one hell of a good start. It will cover a lot of the initial operating cost [of the transition], and it's simple. Simplicity always wins. There are more attractive regimes in Europe which basically guarantee you no loss or a profit but they’re complicated mechanisms.
Coal-fired power stations have all the linkages in and out, as well as approvals to produce power that’s important too.
What do you make of the states standing to benefit most from a coal to hydrogen transition tending to be more rural or Republican-leaning?
Those Republican rural communities have the fat cats
Fat Cat's Friend
obviously not legal experts, your mileage may vary).
As for the slew of comments that are sure to point out the dangers of malicious USB device; We think everyone knows they’re taking on some risk when connecting to a USB plug protruding from a brick wall.
[Thanks Neckbeard]
Savannah Guthrie showed up late to "Today" on Thursday, claiming she overslept. However, TV insiders think her tardiness was deliberate and a direct response to her rumored feud with co-anchor Hoda Kotb. The affable "Today" host got to the studio 20 minutes before "Today" went to air to show NBC News "who is the real boss," a TV insider told Page Six, adding that there's little chance Savannah was actually catching a few too many zzzz's. "This would never happen. She is literally the $40 million dollar woman. She is showing them who is the boss and that they can't do the show without her," the source said. "When Savannah doesn't show up for work the entire force of NBC News is dispatched to find out where she is." "Savannah simply isn't allowed to 'go off the grid', what if there is breaking news?," the insider noted, adding that she's picked up promptly union fat cat
Fat Cat Syndrome
Guess how often investors buying after the 20 worst 6-month periods in US market history have lost money over the next three years? Never. How often did they lose money over the next year? Only once, during the tech crash. What was the average 10-year return? 281%, almost 4X your money. What does this historical return go to if we hit the worst-case scenario, a 52% peak decline (UBS stagflation hell recession with -30% EPS growth)?
6.9X over the next 10 years
14X to 28X for individual blue-chips
Over any given two to three-year period, stock returns are almost all luck.
Time Frame (Years)
Total Returns Explained By Fundamentals/Valuations
1 Day
0.01%
1 month
0.25%
3 months
0.75%
6 months
1.5%
1
3%
2
6%
3
23%
4
31%
5
39%
6
47%
7
55%
8
62%
9
70%
10
78%
11+
90% to 91%
30+
97%
Click to enlarge (Sources: Dividend Kings S&P 500 Valuation fat cat's friend
Fat Cat Bosses
of being "greedy when others are fearful".
Yieldchart
How often has SWK had a yield this generous? About 7% of the time... over the last 25 years. Do you know what the analyst consensus expects once you get beyond 2022's earnings crash? 9.4% CAGR long-term growth.
Investment Strategy
Yield
LT Consensus Growth
LT Consensus Total Return Potential
Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return
Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns
Years To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth
10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return
Stanley Black & Decker
3.4%
9.4%
12.8%
9.0%
6.5%
11.1
1.88
Dividend Aristocrats
2.6%
8.6%
11.1%
7.8%
5.3%
13.5
1.68
S&P 500
1.7%
8.5%
10.2%
7.1%
4.7%
15.4
1.58
Click to enlarge (Sources: Morningstar, FactSet, Ycharts) Is Stanley a hyper-growth stock? No. But with a yield this attractive and very safe, it doesn't have to be to deliver close to 13% long-term returns; that's more than the aristocrats and S&P are offering. SWK Rolling Returns Since 1985
Portfolio Visualizer Premium
Since 1985 SWK has averaged 14% annular returns and long-term returns.
Fat Capitalist
isn't facing a lack of demand; it's just supply constrained. And given the $40 trillion in global infrastructure spending analyst firm KPMG expects through 2050, CAT could face such a wonderful problem for decades to come.
In the second quarter, machinery sales increased 11% year on year to $13.5 billion, largely due to strong sales in North America, which grew 18% year on year. The company's machinery operating margins fell approximately 30 basis points from 2021 levels, given persistent cost inflation (materials and freight costs). That said, management noted its ability to more than offset rising costs with strong price realization. We expect Caterpillar to also raise prices in the back half of the year at a high-single-digit clip to stay ahead of inflation. For 2022, we project over 15% sales growth for Caterpillar's consolidated business. - Morningstar
Morningstar expects 15% sales growth this year and analysts, after the earnings miss, expect 15% as well. What about the coming recession? Is CAT immune from that? Of course not.
2023 sales growth consensus: 7%
2024 consensus: 0%
But 7% growth through a global recession? Does that sound like a potential value trap?
In the near term, we think.
Union Fat Cat
$3,086.49
$980.94
15
$3,055.27
$3,461.36
$5,422.47
$2,367.20
20
$4,433.36
$5,235.95
$9,526.43
$5,093.07
25
$6,433.04
$7,920.35
$16,736.42
$10,303.38
30
$9,334.69
$11,981.01
$29,403.23
$20,068.55
Click to enlarge (Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet) Analysts think CAT has the potential to deliver 29X inflation-adjusted returns over the next 30 years, the standard retirement time frame.
Time Frame (Years)
Ratio Aristocrats/S&P Consensus
Ratio Inflation-Adjusted CAT Consensus vs. S&P consensus
5
1.04
1.21
10
1.09
1.47
15
1.13
1.77
20
1.18
2.15
25
1.23
2.60
30
1.28
3.15
Click to enlarge (Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet) That's potentially 3X the S&P 500's returns and 2.5X better than the dividend aristocrats. 29X inflation-adjusted returns from a dividend aristocrat? That's crazy, it's impossible... it's what CAT has been doing since 1985! CAT Total Returns Since 1985
(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)
CAT is a 106X bagger over the last 37 years.
You don't need crypto to grow your wealth 100X
You just need patience and the world's best blue-chips
(Source: Portfolio.
The Fat Cats
the market and nail the exact bottom. Trust me, in 10 years you'll feel like you bought the bottom." - Michael Batnick
I don't care whether SWK, CAT, or the market generally goes up, down, or sideways in the next one, two, or even three years.
If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes. - Warren Buffett
I'm not here to help you score a quick 2X, 5X, or even 10X return in speculative assets like crypto, SPACs, or meme stocks. I'm here to help you achieve 20X, 30X, or even 50X inflation-adjusted returns over decades. Speculators try to double their money quickly. Smart investors try to change their lives through compounding over time. Gamblers try to time the market and get lucky, and 98% of them fail. Prudent investors make their own luck by buying great blue-chips at good to great prices in times like these. And that's why I have no qualms about recommending SWK or CAT for long-term investors today. I am 80% confident that if you buy them as part of a diversified and prudently risk-managed portfolio today, you'll be very happy with.
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